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Newark & Sherwood Local Development Framework Plan Review - Preferred Approach Town Centre & Retail

Convenience Capacity

1.8 In order to guide the proper planning of convenience retail floorspace (defined as that accommodating food and non-alcoholic beverages, tobacco, alcoholic beverages, newspapers and periodicals and non-durable household goods) over the plan period the TC&RS has provided capacity assessments for two different scenarios. Firstly the capacity for superstore format floorspace, which would achieve an average sales density of approximately £12,500 per sqm in 2016 at 2014 prices. This would be reflective of one of the 'big six' grocers (Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons, Waitrose and Marks & Spencer), and includes their smaller scale local convenience store formats. Secondly for supermarket (e.g. Co-Op) or 'deep discount' (e.g. Aldi and Lidl) format floorspace, which would achieve a lower average sales levels of circa £7,000 per sqm in 2016. The table below sets out the forecast capacity for the two scenarios, with Appendix 12 of the Study providing the detailed calculations underpinning the figures.

District-wide Convenience Floorspace Capacity (2016 - 2033)

 

2021

2026

2031

2033

Floorspace capacity (sqm. net)

Superstore format

-160

926

1,963

2,367

Supermarket / deep discount format

-285

1,653

3,505

4,227


1.9 The superstore format floorspace forecast shows no capacity for additional floorspace by 2021. The capacity increases to 926 sqm net by 2026, 1,963 sqm net by 2031 and to 2,367 sqm net by 2033. Even with the lower average sales density of the supermarket / deep discount format there is still no short-term capacity. Although this does increase more steeply over the medium and long-term phases of the plan period arriving at 4,227 sqm net by 2033.

1.10 The TC&RS confirms that the increases in capacity are driven by forecast growth in population, rather than expenditure growth where no growth is forecast between 2019-2023, and +0.1% over the long-term to 2033.

1.11 In addition to the above the Study has also provided a more refined (location-by-location) capacity assessment disaggregating the global, superstore format, capacity figures throughout the District's centres. This disaggregation is based on the relative trading performance and market share of each centre at the base year (2016). Whilst helpful these forecasts should not be read as necessarily meaning that all the floorspace can and/or should be provided within that centre per se. There may be a lack of suitable sites, constraints to development or a desire to promote more sustainable travel patterns and to deliver specific policy objectives.

Disaggregated Convenience Floorspace (Superstore format) Capacity (2016 - 2033)

 

2021

(sqm. net)

2026

(sqm. net)

2031

(sqm. net)

2033

(sqm. net)

Newark Urban Area

-606

180

938

1,235

Edwinstowe

28

41

53

57

Rainworth

31

48

64

71

Ollerton

147

210

269

293

Southwell

102

149

192

206

All local centres

90

218

338

384

All other out-of-centre floorspace

47

79

109

122

Total District-wide convenience capacity

-160

926

1,963

2,367


1.12 As illustrated in the table above there is no forecast capacity for new convenience floorspace in the Newark Urban Area in 2021 but by 2026 capacity grows to 180 sqm (net), 938 sqm (net) by 2031 and reaches 1,235 sqm (net) in 2033. Beyond the Newark Urban Area modest growth in capacity is forecast. These capacity forecasts provide the preferred approach to establishing convenience retail needs over the plan period, but will be subject to regular review throughout.