Skip to main content

Newark & Sherwood Local Development Framework Plan Review - Preferred Approach Town Centre & Retail

Comparison Capacity

1.17 Comparison retail floorspace is defined as that accommodating goods not covered by the convenience category. This therefore includes clothing, shoes, furniture, household appliances, tools, medical goods, games and toys, books and stationery, jewellery and other personal effects etc. Unlike for convenience retail Experian forecasts indicate that there will be increases in comparison retailers 'productivity growth rates' over the plan period. This is the ability of retailers to absorb higher than inflation increases in their costs over time (such as rents, rates and service charges) in order to maintain profitability and viability. Typically this is through increases to the sales density of existing floorspace. Accordingly selecting an appropriate annual rate of growth has been an important element in generating robust capacity forecasts. In addition the NSK mixed use allocation (NUA/MU/3) forms a significant part of the current approach to meeting comparison retail needs, and as existing allocation an assessment over the site's continued deliverability has been made.

1.18 The TC&RS has therefore tested the sensitivity of increasing Experian's floorspace 'productivity' growth rate of +2.2% for the period 2023 - 2033, to 2.5%, and of including or discounting the NSK mixed use allocation (NUA/MU/3) . The results are set out in the table below. Appendices 13 - 16 (inclusive) of the TC&RS provide the detailed calculations behind the forecasts.

District-wide Comparison Floorspace Capacity (2016 - 2033)

 

2021

(sqm. net)

2026

(sqm. net)

2031

(sqm. net)

2033

(sqm. net)

Scenario 1

2.2% productivity growth and all commitments

-3,479

421

4,977

6,815

Scenario 2

2.2% productivity growth, all commitments and NSK

-7,570

-3,708

931

3,815

Scenario 3

2.5% productivity growth and all commitments

-3,479

35

3,851

5,359

Scenario 4

2.5% productivity growth, all commitments and NSK

-6,479

-2,965

851

2,359


1.19 The study concludes that the majority of capacity is focussed on the Newark Urban Area, therefore disaggregated forecasts for this location have also been provided for each scenario (see table below).

Newark Urban Area Comparison Floorspace Capacity (2016 - 2033)

 

2021

(sqm. net)

2026

(sqm. net)

2031

(sqm. net)

2033

(sqm. net)

Scenario 1

2.2% productivity growth and all commitments

-3,596

-91

3,997

5,667

Scenario 2

2.2% productivity growth, all commitments and NSK

-7,572

-4,100

80

2,667

Scenario 3

2.5% productivity growth and all commitments

-3,596

-428

3,010

4,389

Scenario 4

2.5% productivity growth, all commitments and NSK

-6,596

-3,428

10

1,389


1.20 The study recommends that the slightly higher growth rate is a reasonable assumption, as it reflects the fact that existing retailers are facing increased pressures on their turnover and profitability. With them needing to achieve higher productivity growth over time to remain viable. On this basis the forecasts for Scenario 3 and 4 have been distributed across the District's various centres. As with convenience retail these disaggregation's are based on the relative trading performance and market share of each centre at the base year (2016). Whilst helpful these forecasts should not be read as necessarily meaning that all the floorspace can and/or should be provided within that centre per se. There may be a lack of suitable sites, constraints to development or a desire to promote more sustainable travel patterns and to deliver specific policy objectives.

Disaggregated Preferred Comparison Floorspace Capacity Forecasts (2016 - 2033) - Scenario 3

 

2021

(sqm. net)

2026

(sqm. net)

2031

(sqm. net)

2033

(sqm. net)

Newark Urban Area

-3,596

-428

3,010

4,389

Edwinstowe

2

10

19

23

Rainworth

6

19

32

38

Ollerton

26

115

212

252

Southwell

33

159

295

346

All local centres

45

143

250

292

All other out-of-centre floorspace

4

17

31

19

Total District-wide convenience capacity

-3,479

35

3,851

5,359


Disaggregated Preferred Comparison
Floorspace Capacity Forecasts (2016 - 2033) - Scenario 4

 

2021

(sqm. net)

2026

(sqm. net)

2031

(sqm. net)

2033

(sqm. net)

Newark Urban Area

-6,596

-3,428

10

1,389

Edwinstowe

2

10

19

23

Rainworth

6

19

32

38

Ollerton

26

115

212

252

Southwell

33

159

295

346

All local centres

45

143

250

292

All other out-of-centre floorspace

4

17

31

19

Total District-wide convenience capacity

-6,479

-2,965

851

2,359


1.21 As illustrated under both forecasts there is no capacity for new comparison retail in the Newark Urban Area within the first ten years of the plan period, this however changes between 2026 and 2031 (more steeply under Scenario 3) before arriving at 4,389 sqm net (Scenario 3) and 1,389 sqm net (Scenario 4) respectively in 2033. Beyond the Newark Urban Area modest levels of capacity are forecast to be present throughout the plan period under both scenarios.